Recession Fears and Housing Market Crashes: What’s Really Going On?
If you’ve spent even five minutes online lately, you’ve probably seen the headlines:
“Recession incoming.” “Housing market crash is next.”
It’s enough to make anyone pause. But let’s take a breath and look at what’s actually happening—because making smart decisions means seeing past the fear and into the facts.
Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall
Yes, economists are saying the chance of a recession is a bit higher this year. But here’s the key insight: that does not automatically mean we’ll see home prices fall.
In fact, during four of the last six recessions, home values actually went up. The 2008 crash was the exception—not the rule. That downturn was fueled by a very specific mix of subprime lending and overbuilding, which we’re not seeing today.
Recessions Often Come with Lower Mortgage Rates
Historically, mortgage rates tend to drop during recessions. For buyers who are financially prepared, that could mean a real opportunity—lower monthly payments, better affordability, and stronger negotiating power.
So instead of sitting on the sidelines waiting for a mythical crash, now might be the time to start preparing and watching the market closely.
The Truth About Inventory Headlines
Another stat making the rounds: “New home inventory is back to 2009 levels.”
That’s technically true—but wildly misleading without context.
Here’s what’s actually happening:
Builders aren’t flooding the market with homes. They’re catching up after over a decade of underbuilding. This increase in inventory is healthy—it means more options for buyers and, in many cases, builder incentives that can make purchasing more attractive.
Ignore the Noise. Focus on Your Game Plan.
Headlines are meant to spark clicks and stir emotions. My job—and my promise—is to give you the real story behind the market so you can make informed, strategic moves.
Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply want to understand what the market means for your long-term goals—I’m here to help.
Let’s cut through the noise together.
